analyzing effects of policy pricing on household energy consumption of country by system approach

nowadays energy has significant role in socio economic development of counties; any decision on energy sector may affect the broad area in societies. system approach in energy modeling as an efficient method is known by many researchers in management and planning in a country particularly in energy sector. also system dynamics is one of the efficient methods, for reason unique ability at solving problems toward classic methods that among them consists possibility comprehensive and dynamic investigation, it is possible explain of qualitative variables, definition of different scenario and can be integrated with other method such as econometric method. hence, in this paper this method has been applied to analyzing effects of energy price changes at household section. at the first, effective factors on energy consumption were identified consider related with household energy demand in literature, that these are such as actual energy price, actual income and number of household, also other attributes effect on these factors and all effective issues are determined by causal loop diagram. then effects of these factors are have described by related equations, that major equations are explained to clarifying. also measure of energy saving is subtracted of energy consumption as one of the factors that at next effect on it. in order to validate the proposed model the results of simulation for energy consumption are compared with the actual data for years 2000-2006. next different scenario analysis for energy price such as considering subsidy, eliminating subsidy, and gradually eliminating subsidy are demonstrated. then energy consumption and major variables such as energy saving, gdp and labor force are simulated until 2020. in the end, the results of analyzing various scenarios confirm gradually elimination of subsidy (during 10 years) and also moving the subsidies toward building standardization as the concluding remarks of this paper. also step eliminate subsidy present as an optimum scenario.